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NYY 5 / TBR 1
NYYNew York Yankees47%
TBRTampa Bay Rays53%

at Tropicana Field

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
NYYAway starterCam SchlittlerConfirmed
Model pickTBR moneyline53%Model 20260706_auto
TBRHome starterGriffin JaxConfirmed
NYY47%ML -122
Base model probability53%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability47%Selected moneyline pick
TBR53%ML +104

Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#3
Total leanOver
Model-market gap5.5 pts

Model sees coin flip (52.7% TBR), market agrees (51.9% TBR). Schlittler's 2.08 ERA over 104 IP is elite and sustainable. NYY's 3.0 RPG is season-low but TBR's 6.3 RPG offense at neutral Trop should push total over 7.5. Model at 8.71 runs looks right; lean NYY on value at +104.

ace matchup

Projection Context

Projected margin0.0
Projected total9.3
Market total7.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Cam SchlittlerNYY starter / away
Projected K5.0Actual 8 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -143 betonlineag / U +126 fanduel6 books at this line
Model over 5.538%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%over
O 2.586%over
O 3.572%over
O 4.555%over
O 5.538%over
O 6.524%over
O 7.514%over
O 8.57%under
O 9.54%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 8 strikeouts.

Griffin JaxTBR starter / home
Projected K4.9Actual 10 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +110 fanatics / U -123 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 5.536%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%over
O 2.585%over
O 3.571%over
O 4.553%over
O 5.536%over
O 6.523%over
O 7.513%over
O 8.57%over
O 9.53%over
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 10 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context

Market consensus-122 / +104NYY / TBR moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-166)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -101 / U -123
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total