sharps.ggEvery pick graded
Back to board

MLB / mlb / live

ARI 1 / TBR 5
ARIArizona Diamondbacks46%
TBRTampa Bay Rays54%

at Tropicana Field

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
ARIAway starterMerrill KellyConfirmed
Model pickTBR moneyline54%Model 20260622_auto
TBRHome starterDrew RasmussenConfirmed
ARI46%ML +166
Base model probability54%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability64%Selected moneyline pick
TBR54%ML -200

Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#1
Total leanOver
Model-market gap9.9 pts

Model underweights TBR comparison: Rasmussen 2.62 ERA vs Kelly 5.71 ERA is a massive SP mismatch. Market at 63.2% implied reflects this; model at 54% misses the gap. Kelly's 1.52 WHIP and 5.23 K/9 are exploitable by TBR's .802 OPS. Total: model 8.98 vs market 7.5 suggests over value given ARI bullpen exposure.

Large model-market gap

Projection Context

Projected margin0.2
Projected total9.0
Market total7.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Merrill KellyARI starter / away
Projected K3.6Actual 3 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -125 betmgm / U +105 bovada5 books at this line
Model over 3.547%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.586%over
O 2.568%over
O 3.547%under
O 4.529%under
O 5.516%under
O 6.58%under
O 7.53%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

Drew RasmussenTBR starter / home
Projected K5.6Actual 5 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -102 fanduel / U -113 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 5.548%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.591%over
O 3.579%over
O 4.564%over
O 5.548%under
O 6.533%under
O 7.521%under
O 8.512%under
O 9.57%under
O 10.53%under
O 11.52%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context

Market consensus+166 / -200ARI / TBR moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+110)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -115 / U -105
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total