sharps.ggEvery pick graded
Back to board

MLB / mlb / live

ARI 2 / TBR 4
ARIArizona Diamondbacks58%
TBRTampa Bay Rays42%

at Tropicana Field

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
ARIAway starterJose CabreraConfirmed
Model pickARI moneyline58%Model 20260622_auto
TBRHome starterCole SulserConfirmed
ARI58%ML +118
Base model probability58%Moneyline only
TBR42%ML -140

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#7
Total lean · analyst-timeNo total lean
Model-market gap · analyst-time17.1 pts

Model favors ARI 58.3% vs market 41.2% (large disagreement flag). Jose Cabrera has 1 start, 5.0 IP—meaningless sample. Cole Sulser 5.40 ERA in 31.7 IP is real but unspectacular. TBR offense 0.4 RPG is suspiciously low; ARI 1.2 RPG also weak. Data quality issues make both sides uncertain. Pass or lean ARI following model, but no conviction.

Large model-market gap

Projection Context

Projected margin1.0
Projected total9.2
Market total8.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Jose CabreraARI starter / away
Projected K3.2Actual 4 K
Market line · pregameN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.582%over
O 2.561%over
O 3.539%over
O 4.522%under
O 5.511%under
O 6.55%under
O 7.52%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Cole SulserTBR starter / home
Projected K2.2Actual 1 K
Market line · pregameN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.563%under
O 2.536%under
O 3.517%under
O 4.57%under
O 5.53%under
O 6.51%under
O 7.50%under
O 8.50%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus+118 / -140ARI / TBR moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+145)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -110 / U -110
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total