MLB / mlb / live
ARI 1 / TBR 6ARIArizona Diamondbacks47%
TBRTampa Bay Rays53%
at Tropicana Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedARIAway starterZac GallenConfirmed
Model pickTBR moneyline53%Model 20260622_auto
TBRHome starterNick MartinezConfirmed
ARI47%ML +115
Base model probability53%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability55%Selected moneyline pick
TBR53%ML -136
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
Projection Context
Projected margin0.1
Projected total9.0
Market total8.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Lines
Zac GallenARI starter / away
Projected K3.8Actual 0 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -110 betmgm / U -108 fanduel6 books at this line
Model over 3.551%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.588%under
O 2.572%under
O 3.551%under
O 4.533%under
O 5.518%under
O 6.59%under
O 7.54%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 0 strikeouts.
Nick MartinezTBR starter / home
Projected K3.9Actual 3 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O +118 fanduel / U -125 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 3.554%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.589%over
O 2.574%over
O 3.554%under
O 4.536%under
O 5.521%under
O 6.511%under
O 7.55%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+115 / -136ARI / TBR moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+154)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -110 / U -110
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total