MLB / mlb / live
KCR 12 / TBR 5KCRKansas City Royals47%
TBRTampa Bay Rays53%
at Tropicana Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedKCRAway starterLuinder AvilaConfirmed
Model pickTBR moneyline53%Model 20260622_auto
TBRHome starterShane McClanahanConfirmed
KCR47%ML +155
Base model probability53%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability62%Selected moneyline pick
TBR53%ML -187
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
Projection Context
Projected margin0.0
Projected total9.0
Market total7.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Lines
Luinder AvilaKCR starter / away
Projected K3.5Actual 6 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O +130 bovada / U -134 betrivers6 books at this line
Model over 3.546%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.585%over
O 2.567%over
O 3.546%over
O 4.527%over
O 5.515%over
O 6.57%under
O 7.53%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.
Shane McClanahanTBR starter / home
Projected K5.0Actual 4 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +125 betonlineag / U -145 bovada7 books at this line
Model over 5.538%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%over
O 2.586%over
O 3.572%over
O 4.555%under
O 5.538%under
O 6.524%under
O 7.514%under
O 8.57%under
O 9.54%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+155 / -187KCR / TBR moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+118)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -115 / U -105
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total