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KCR 2 / TBR 1
KCRKansas City Royals48%
TBRTampa Bay Rays52%

at Tropicana Field

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
KCRAway starterMichael WachaConfirmed
Model pickTBR moneyline52%Model 20260622_auto
TBRHome starterDrew RasmussenConfirmed
KCR48%ML +158
Base model probability52%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability63%Selected moneyline pick
TBR52%ML -190

Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#2
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap11.1 pts

Model has TBR at 51.7% while Pinnacle implies 63.1% — an 11.4pp gap flags structural miss. Rasmussen's 2.59 ERA and 0.88 WHIP in 80 IP is elite; model's 9.11 total vs market 7.5 suggests it's underweighting pitcher quality. KCR's .518 OPS is historically weak. Lean TBR and under, but market knows something about the 2-run gap.

Large model-market gaptotal far from market

Projection Context

Projected margin0.3
Projected total9.1
Market total7.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Michael WachaKCR starter / away
Projected K4.0Actual 5 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -125 betmgm / U +109 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 3.556%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.590%over
O 2.575%over
O 3.556%over
O 4.537%over
O 5.522%under
O 6.512%under
O 7.56%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

Drew RasmussenTBR starter / home
Projected K5.8Actual 5 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -136 draftkings / U +120 betrivers7 books at this line
Model over 5.551%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.592%over
O 3.581%over
O 4.567%over
O 5.551%under
O 6.536%under
O 7.523%under
O 8.514%under
O 9.58%under
O 10.54%under
O 11.52%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context

Market consensus+158 / -190KCR / TBR moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+115)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O +100 / U -120
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total