MLB / mlb / live
BOS 5 / TBR 7BOSBoston Red Sox42%
TBRTampa Bay Rays58%
at Tropicana Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedBOSAway starterJake Bennett
Model pickTBR moneyline58%Model 20260414_1
TBRHome starterDrew Rasmussen
BOS42%ML +136
Base model probability58%Moneyline only
TBR58%ML -162
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#7
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time0.2 pts
Model at 58.1% vs market 57.9% — near-perfect convergence on TBR. Bennett's 10.3 IP sample (2 GS) is nowhere near reliable; 3.48 K/9 is worrying. Rasmussen's 3.0 ERA over 66 IP is legitimate, but model's 9.14 total vs market 7.5 is a 1.64-run gap. Tropicana neutral park, Rasmussen's control profile, and Bennett's contact issues suggest under 7.5 makes sense despite model's inflation.
total far from market
Projection Context
Projected margin0.6
Projected total9.1
Market total7.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+136 / -162BOS / TBR moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+139)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O +100 / U -120
33 books31 ML24 run line23 total