MLB / mlb / live
BOS 1 / TBR 3BOSBoston Red Sox40%
TBRTampa Bay Rays60%
at Tropicana Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedBOSAway starterConnelly Early
Model pickTBR moneyline60%Model 20260414_1
TBRHome starterIan Seymour
BOS40%ML -110
Base model probability60%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability50%Selected moneyline pick
TBR60%ML -109
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#2
Total leanNo total lean
Model-market gap10.3 pts
Model likes TBR at 60.2% but market has BOS favored at 52%. Ian Seymour's 45.00 ERA in 0.0 IP is clearly corrupted data—likely recent callup or bulk role with minimal recorded innings. Connelly Early's 1.69 ERA in 5.1 IP is a tiny sample. With TBR pitcher data suspect and BOS offense strongest in the league at 4.9 RPG, fade the model's home lean.
Large model-market gap
Projection Context
Projected margin1.1
Projected total8.9
Market total8.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus-110 / -109BOS / TBR moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-180)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -110 / U -111
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total