MLB / mlb / live
BOS 1 / TBR 3BOSBoston Red Sox40%
TBRTampa Bay Rays60%
at Tropicana Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedBOSAway starterConnelly Early
Model pickTBR moneyline60%Model 20260414_1
TBRHome starterIan Seymour
BOS40%ML -110
Base model probability60%Moneyline only
TBR60%ML -109
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#2
Total lean · analyst-timeNo total lean
Model-market gap · analyst-time11.3 pts
Model likes TBR at 60.2% but market has BOS favored at 52%. Ian Seymour's 45.00 ERA in 0.0 IP is clearly corrupted data—likely recent callup or bulk role with minimal recorded innings. Connelly Early's 1.69 ERA in 5.1 IP is a tiny sample. With TBR pitcher data suspect and BOS offense strongest in the league at 4.9 RPG, fade the model's home lean.
Large model-market gap
Projection Context
Projected margin1.1
Projected total8.9
Market total8.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus-110 / -109BOS / TBR moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-180)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -110 / U -111
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total