MLB / mlb / live
LAA 14 / TBR 3LAALos Angeles Angels52%
TBRTampa Bay Rays48%
at Tropicana Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedLAAAway starterReid Detmers
Model pickLAA moneyline52%Model 20260414_1
TBRHome starterDrew Rasmussen
LAA52%ML +140
Base model probability52%Moneyline only
TBR48%ML -170
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#2
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time11.7 pts
Model has LAA at 52% but market implies TBR 59.5%. Rasmussen's 1.8 ERA in 5.0 IP per start plus LAA's 22-36 record contradicts the model pick. Model total 9.04 vs market 7.0 is a 2-run gap—likely overweighting LAA's .860 OPS against weak opponent history while missing Rasmussen's dominance. TBR at home with elite starter form is the correct side.
Large model-market gaptotal far from marketoffense defense mismatch
Projection Context
Projected margin0.3
Projected total9.0
Market total7.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+140 / -170LAA / TBR moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+133)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.0O -110 / U -110
32 books31 ML24 run line23 total