MLB / mlb / live
LAA 14 / TBR 3LAALos Angeles Angels52%
TBRTampa Bay Rays48%
at Tropicana Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedLAAAway starterReid Detmers
Model pickLAA moneyline52%Model 20260414_1
TBRHome starterDrew Rasmussen
LAA52%ML +140
Base model probability52%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability40%Selected moneyline pick
TBR48%ML -170
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#2
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap12.4 pts
Model has LAA at 52% but market implies TBR 59.5%. Rasmussen's 1.8 ERA in 5.0 IP per start plus LAA's 22-36 record contradicts the model pick. Model total 9.04 vs market 7.0 is a 2-run gap—likely overweighting LAA's .860 OPS against weak opponent history while missing Rasmussen's dominance. TBR at home with elite starter form is the correct side.
Large model-market gaptotal far from marketoffense defense mismatch
Projection Context
Projected margin0.3
Projected total9.0
Market total7.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+140 / -170LAA / TBR moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+133)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.0O -110 / U -110
32 books31 ML24 run line23 total