MLB / mlb / live
LAA 5 / TBR 8LAALos Angeles Angels46%
TBRTampa Bay Rays54%
at Tropicana Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedLAAAway starterWalbert Ureña
Model pickTBR moneyline54%Model 20260414_1
TBRHome starterNick Martinez
LAA46%ML +132
Base model probability54%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability59%Selected moneyline pick
TBR54%ML -159
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#7
Total leanOver
Model-market gap5.2 pts
Market has TBR at 62.3% vs model's 53.6%—an 8.7pp gap flagged as large disagreement. Model sees this closer to coin flip while market is confident. LAA's .860 OPS is elite but they're 22-35; TBR is 34-19 with strong home record. Ureña's 1.2 IP sample is meaningless noise. Model total of 9.17 vs market 8.0 suggests over lean, supported by LAA offense.
Large model-market gap
Projection Context
Projected margin0.1
Projected total9.2
Market total8.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+132 / -159LAA / TBR moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+134)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -110 / U -111
32 books31 ML24 run line23 total