MLB / mlb / live
BAL 1 / TBR 4BALBaltimore Orioles56%
TBRTampa Bay Rays44%
at Tropicana Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedBALAway starterKyle Bradish
Model pickBAL moneyline56%Model 20260414_1
TBRHome starterGriffin Jax
BAL56%ML +105
Base model probability56%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability47%Selected moneyline pick
TBR44%ML -125
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#6
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap8.9 pts
Model favors BAL at 55.7% but market has TBR at 53.5%—essentially a coin flip. Griffin Jax's 1.0 IP and 18.00 ERA is noise (likely reliever role, not real starter data). TBR's 6.4 RPG offense vs BAL's 3.7 RPG is massive. Model's 9.15 total vs market 7.5 is a 1.65-run gap; lean under toward market given thin pitcher context.
Large model-market gaptotal far from market
Projection Context
Projected margin0.7
Projected total9.2
Market total7.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+105 / -125BAL / TBR moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+169)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -110 / U -110
32 books31 ML24 run line23 total