MLB / mlb / live
MIA 10 / TBR 5MIAMiami Marlins46%
TBRTampa Bay Rays54%
at Tropicana Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedMIAAway starterSandy Alcantara
Model pickTBR moneyline54%Model 20260414_1
TBRHome starterNick Martinez
MIA46%ML +120
Base model probability54%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability57%Selected moneyline pick
TBR54%ML -145
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#5
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap3.0 pts
Model has TBR 53.6%, market implies 56.4% — thin comparison to Tampa. Alcantara's 0.00 ERA in 7 IP is tiny sample noise, not signal. Model total 9.02 vs market 7.5 is a 1.5-run gap; flag fired correctly. Lean under with market.
total far from market
Projection Context
Projected margin0.2
Projected total9.0
Market total7.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+120 / -145MIA / TBR moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+150)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -115 / U -105
32 books31 ML24 run line23 total