MLB / mlb / live
MIA 3 / TBR 6MIAMiami Marlins49%
TBRTampa Bay Rays51%
at Tropicana Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedMIAAway starterEury Pérez
Model pickTBR moneyline51%Model 20260414_1
TBRHome starterDrew Rasmussen
MIA49%ML +135
Base model probability51%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability59%Selected moneyline pick
TBR51%ML -160
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#2
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap8.6 pts
Model sees coin flip (50.6%), market has TBR at 59.2%. Model's 9.12 total vs market 7.0 is a 2+ run gap—huge structural miss. Rasmussen's 1.8 ERA in tiny 5.0 IP sample is noise, but Pérez (3.86 ERA, 10.29 K/9 in 7 IP) also small sample. Tropicana neutral park. Market knows something model doesn't on total; lean under at 7.
Large model-market gaptotal far from market
Projection Context
Projected margin0.3
Projected total9.1
Market total7.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+135 / -160MIA / TBR moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+137)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O 0 / U -122
31 books30 ML23 run line22 total