MLB / mlb / live
TOR 3 / TBR 4TORToronto Blue Jays59%
TBRTampa Bay Rays41%
at Tropicana Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedTORAway starterKevin Gausman
Model pickTOR moneyline59%Model 20260414_1
TBRHome starterDrew Rasmussen
TOR59%ML +110
Base model probability59%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability46%Selected moneyline pick
TBR41%ML -130
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#3
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap12.9 pts
Model has TOR at 58.6% vs market's 45.2% — a 13.4-point gap. Gausman's 16.5 K/9 and 0.17 WHIP over 60 IP is elite, not noise. Rasmussen's 3.6 K/9 in 50 IP suggests contact pitcher facing hot offense. Model predicts 9.14 total vs market 7.0; ace matchup argues under. Market knows something about TBR's home comparison model is missing.
Large model-market gaptotal far from marketace matchup
Projection Context
Projected margin1.1
Projected total9.1
Market total7.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+110 / -130TOR / TBR moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+164)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.0O -118 / U -102
31 books29 ML24 run line21 total