MLB / mlb / live
TOR 3 / TBR 4TORToronto Blue Jays59%
TBRTampa Bay Rays41%
at Tropicana Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedTORAway starterKevin Gausman
Model pickTOR moneyline59%Model 20260414_1
TBRHome starterDrew Rasmussen
TOR59%ML +110
Base model probability59%Moneyline only
TBR41%ML -130
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#3
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time13.5 pts
Model has TOR at 58.6% vs market's 45.2% — a 13.4-point gap. Gausman's 16.5 K/9 and 0.17 WHIP over 60 IP is elite, not noise. Rasmussen's 3.6 K/9 in 50 IP suggests contact pitcher facing hot offense. Model predicts 9.14 total vs market 7.0; ace matchup argues under. Market knows something about TBR's home comparison model is missing.
Large model-market gaptotal far from marketace matchup
Projection Context
Projected margin1.1
Projected total9.1
Market total7.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+110 / -130TOR / TBR moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+164)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.0O -118 / U -102
31 books29 ML24 run line21 total