MLB / mlb / live
SFG 1 / TBR 2SFGSan Francisco Giants55%
TBRTampa Bay Rays45%
at Tropicana Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedSFGAway starterTyler Mahle
Model pickSFG moneyline55%Model 20260414_1
TBRHome starterSteven Matz
SFG55%ML +110
Base model probability55%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability46%Selected moneyline pick
TBR45%ML -128
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#7
Total leanOver
Model-market gap9.3 pts
Model picks SFG at 55.2% vs market 45.4% — an 8+ point gap flagged as large disagreement. SFG offense is abysmal (.388 OPS, 2.7 RPG over 33 games). TBR superior on both sides but model leans away. Matz's 7.20 ERA in 5.0 IP is tiny sample noise; can't trust either SP line. Total 9.24 vs market 8.5 suggests over but pitcher data too thin to bet.
Large model-market gapoffense defense mismatch
Projection Context
Projected margin0.6
Projected total9.2
Market total8.3
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+110 / -128SFG / TBR moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+161)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.3O -116 / U -108
32 books30 ML25 run line22 total