MLB / mlb / live
SFG 1 / TBR 5SFGSan Francisco Giants56%
TBRTampa Bay Rays44%
at Tropicana Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedSFGAway starterLanden Roupp
Model pickSFG moneyline56%Model 20260414_1
TBRHome starterGriffin Jax
SFG56%ML -110
Base model probability56%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability50%Selected moneyline pick
TBR44%ML -109
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#12
Total leanNo total lean
Model-market gap5.6 pts
Griffin Jax has 1.0 IP this season (18.00 ERA); Roupp has null stats. Neither starter has meaningful data. Model predicts 9.23 runs vs market 7.5, but with no pitcher foundation this is unreliable. SFG offense at .388 OPS is historically poor, TBR at .802 is strong, yet model picks SFG by 0.88 runs. Structural uncertainty too high to form a view.
total far from marketoffense defense mismatch
Projection Context
Projected margin0.9
Projected total9.2
Market total7.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus-110 / -109SFG / TBR moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-183)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -110 / U -110
32 books30 ML25 run line22 total