MLB / mlb / live
SFG 0 / TBR 3SFGSan Francisco Giants58%
TBRTampa Bay Rays42%
at Tropicana Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedSFGAway starterRobbie Ray
Model pickSFG moneyline58%Model 20260414_1
TBRHome starterShane McClanahan
SFG58%ML +120
Base model probability58%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability43%Selected moneyline pick
TBR42%ML -145
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#11
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap14.5 pts
McClanahan has null ERA/IP/K9 despite 10 starts—data issue makes evaluating ace matchup impossible. Model picks worse team (SFG 13-18, .388 OPS) by 1 run and projects 9.02 total vs market 7.5. Without McClanahan's stats, can't justify either side. Market total looks right given Ray's 3.38 ERA.
Large model-market gaptotal far from marketoffense defense mismatch
Projection Context
Projected margin1.1
Projected total9.0
Market total7.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+120 / -145SFG / TBR moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+150)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -113 / U -106
32 books30 ML25 run line22 total