MLB / mlb / live
WSN 3 / STL 5WSNWashington Nationals42%
STLSt. Louis Cardinals58%
at Busch Stadium
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedWSNAway starterJake IrvinConfirmed
Model pickSTL moneyline58%Model 20260914_auto
STLHome starterQuinn MathewsConfirmed
WSN42%ML +108
Base model probability58%Moneyline only
STL58%ML -126
Projection Context
Projected margin0.5
Projected total9.1
Market total8.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Lines
Jake IrvinWSN starter / away
Projected K4.0Actual 8 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -118 betmgm / U +103 betonlineag6 books at this line
Model over 3.556%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.590%over
O 2.575%over
O 3.556%over
O 4.537%over
O 5.522%over
O 6.512%over
O 7.56%over
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 8 strikeouts.
Quinn MathewsSTL starter / home
Projected K5.2Actual 3 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +106 fanduel / U -133 betonlineag4 books at this line
Model over 5.542%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%over
O 2.588%over
O 3.575%under
O 4.558%under
O 5.542%under
O 6.527%under
O 7.516%under
O 8.59%under
O 9.55%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+108 / -126WSN / STL moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+155)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -120 / U +100
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total