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SFG 1 / STL 2
SFGSan Francisco Giants44%
STLSt. Louis Cardinals56%

at Busch Stadium

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
SFGAway starterLanden RouppConfirmed
Model pickSTL moneyline56%Model 20260914_auto
STLHome starterQuinn MathewsConfirmed
SFG44%ML +128
Base model probability56%Moneyline only
STL56%ML -152

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#2
Total lean · analyst-timeNo total lean
Model-market gap · analyst-timeN/A

No fresh market odds, so this is a no-context read. STL's 74-76 record and 5.2 RPG with a .812 OPS outclass SFG's listed .388 OPS, and home field at Busch (PF 1.034) supports the model's 55.5% lean. Mathews at 6 starts with a 1.50 WHIP tempers conviction versus Roupp's 1.28 over 150.7 IP. No market total, so no total view.

market data missing

Projection Context

Projected margin0.1
Projected total9.7
Market total8.0
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Landen RouppSFG starter / away
Projected K3.6Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +100 fanatics / U -125 bovada7 books at this line
Model over 4.529%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.587%over
O 2.569%over
O 3.548%over
O 4.529%under
O 5.516%under
O 6.58%under
O 7.53%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Quinn MathewsSTL starter / home
Projected K4.9Actual 8 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +115 bovada / U -139 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 5.537%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%over
O 2.586%over
O 3.572%over
O 4.554%over
O 5.537%over
O 6.524%over
O 7.514%over
O 8.57%under
O 9.54%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 8 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus+128 / -152SFG / STL moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+140)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -117 / U -108
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total