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SFG 10 / STL 3
SFGSan Francisco Giants44%
STLSt. Louis Cardinals56%

at Busch Stadium

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
SFGAway starterBlade TidwellConfirmed
Model pickSTL moneyline56%Model 20260914_auto
STLHome starterAndre PallanteConfirmed
SFG44%ML +149
Base model probability56%Moneyline only
STL56%ML -178

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#4
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time4.4 pts

STL is the better side: 75-76 vs 62-89, 5.2 RPG, and Pallante's 3.45 ERA over 146 IP beats Tidwell's 4.82 in 46.7 IP. Market at -157 (59.9%) is above the model's 55.5%, so no comparison, just agreement. Model's 9.73 total sits well over the 8.5 line; with Pallante's profile and a near-neutral 1.03 park, I lean under. SFG's listed .388 OPS looks unreliable.

Projection Context

Projected margin0.3
Projected total9.5
Market total8.0
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Blade TidwellSFG starter / away
Projected K3.6Actual 4 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O +102 fanduel / U -115 betmgm6 books at this line
Model over 3.548%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.587%over
O 2.569%over
O 3.548%over
O 4.529%under
O 5.516%under
O 6.58%under
O 7.53%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Andre PallanteSTL starter / home
Projected K4.0Actual 2 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -122 fanduel / U +105 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 3.557%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.590%over
O 2.576%under
O 3.557%under
O 4.538%under
O 5.523%under
O 6.512%under
O 7.56%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus+149 / -178SFG / STL moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+120)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -110 / U -110
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total