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CHW 6 / STL 5
CHWChicago White Sox39%
STLSt. Louis Cardinals61%

at Busch Stadium

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
CHWAway starterSean NewcombConfirmed
Model pickSTL moneyline61%Model 20260907_auto
STLHome starterKyle LeahyConfirmed
CHW39%ML -110
Base model probability61%Moneyline only
STL61%ML -108

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#4
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time10.4 pts

STL's 6.5 RPG and .812 OPS dwarf Chicago's 3.3 RPG/.729 OPS, and they're home, yet the market prices this near pick'em (-107) while the model sits at 61%. That 10-point gap is a caution sign, likely market respect for Newcomb's 2.71 ERA and 1.13 WHIP. I'll take the home side at a reduced conviction. Both starters under 3.50 ERA argues slightly under the 8.5.

Large model-market gapace matchup

Projection Context

Projected margin0.8
Projected total8.6
Market total8.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Sean NewcombCHW starter / away
Projected K2.6Actual 4 K
Market line · pregameN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.573%over
O 2.548%over
O 3.527%over
O 4.513%under
O 5.55%under
O 6.52%under
O 7.51%under
O 8.50%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Kyle LeahySTL starter / home
Projected K4.7Actual 4 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O +138 fanduel / U -160 betmgm5 books at this line
Model over 3.569%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%over
O 2.584%over
O 3.569%over
O 4.551%under
O 5.534%under
O 6.521%under
O 7.512%under
O 8.56%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus-110 / -108CHW / STL moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-178)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -105 / U -115
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total