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PIT 5 / STL 4
PITPittsburgh Pirates41%
STLSt. Louis Cardinals59%

at Busch Stadium

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
PITAway starterBraxton AshcraftConfirmed
Model pickSTL moneyline59%Model 20260824_auto
STLHome starterMatthew LiberatoreConfirmed
PIT41%ML -126
Base model probability59%Moneyline only
STL59%ML +110

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#10
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time12.3 pts

Model has STL at 59.4% vs market 47.1%, a 12-point gap it can't justify: Liberatore carries a 5.44 ERA and 1.47 WHIP against Ashcraft's 3.59 ERA and 1.07 WHIP. The starter comparison is clearly Pittsburgh's, and the market prices it. PIT's 2.6 RPG offense caps enthusiasm, so lean only. Under 8.0 on Ashcraft's WHIP and PIT's weak bats.

Large model-market gap

Projection Context

Projected margin0.8
Projected total8.8
Market total7.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Braxton AshcraftPIT starter / away
Projected K4.2Actual 3 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +120 bovada / U -144 draftkings5 books at this line
Model over 5.525%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.592%over
O 2.578%over
O 3.560%under
O 4.541%under
O 5.525%under
O 6.514%under
O 7.57%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

Matthew LiberatoreSTL starter / home
Projected K6.1Actual 9 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -125 betrivers / U +118 betonlineag7 books at this line
Model over 5.556%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.598%over
O 2.593%over
O 3.584%over
O 4.572%over
O 5.556%over
O 6.541%over
O 7.528%over
O 8.517%over
O 9.510%under
O 10.56%under
O 11.53%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 9 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus-126 / +110PIT / STL moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-160)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -120 / U +100
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total