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PIT 1 / STL 4
PITPittsburgh Pirates43%
STLSt. Louis Cardinals57%

at Busch Stadium

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
PITAway starterJared JonesConfirmed
Model pickSTL moneyline57%Model 20260824_auto
STLHome starterQuinn MathewsConfirmed
PIT43%ML -115
Base model probability57%Moneyline only
STL57%ML -102

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#7
Total lean · analyst-timeOver
Model-market gap · analyst-time8.6 pts

Model at 57% vs market's 48.4% on STL is a large gap. STL's offense is clearly better (.812 OPS, 4.7 RPG vs .710, 3.2), but the market is pricing the starter mismatch: Jones has 68 IP with a 1.25 WHIP and 10.19 K/9 while Mathews has just 14 IP, a 1.79 WHIP and 6.43 ERA. Slight STL lean on offense and the 1.03 park, no conviction. Mathews' walk-heavy profile plus STL bats supports the over on 7.5.

Large model-market gap

Projection Context

Projected margin0.6
Projected total8.9
Market total7.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Jared JonesPIT starter / away
Projected K4.5Actual 6 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -150 bovada / U +125 betonlineag6 books at this line
Model over 4.546%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.593%over
O 2.581%over
O 3.564%over
O 4.546%over
O 5.529%over
O 6.517%under
O 7.59%under
O 8.54%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

Quinn MathewsSTL starter / home
Projected K5.2Actual 7 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +105 betmgm / U -114 betrivers7 books at this line
Model over 5.542%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%over
O 2.588%over
O 3.575%over
O 4.558%over
O 5.542%over
O 6.527%over
O 7.516%under
O 8.59%under
O 9.55%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus-115 / -102PIT / STL moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-173)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -105 / U -115
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total