MLB / mlb / live
PHI 1 / STL 7PHIPhiladelphia Phillies58%
STLSt. Louis Cardinals42%
at Busch Stadium
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedPHIAway starterZack WheelerConfirmed
Model pickPHI moneyline58%Model 20260810_auto
STLHome starterKyle LeahyConfirmed
PHI58%ML -166
Base model probability58%Moneyline only
STL42%ML +140
Projection Context
Projected margin1.1
Projected total8.9
Market total8.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Lines
Zack WheelerPHI starter / away
Projected K5.9Actual 5 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -148 fanduel / U +134 betonlineag5 books at this line
Model over 5.553%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.598%over
O 2.592%over
O 3.583%over
O 4.569%over
O 5.553%under
O 6.538%under
O 7.525%under
O 8.515%under
O 9.59%under
O 10.55%under
O 11.52%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
Kyle LeahySTL starter / home
Projected K4.8Actual 6 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -160 fanatics / U +128 betonlineag6 books at this line
Model over 3.570%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%over
O 2.585%over
O 3.570%over
O 4.552%over
O 5.535%over
O 6.522%under
O 7.512%under
O 8.56%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.51%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus-166 / +140PHI / STL moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-125)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -106 / U -115
31 books30 ML23 run line22 total