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PHI 0 / STL 2
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies53%
STLSt. Louis Cardinals47%

at Busch Stadium

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
PHIAway starterCristopher SánchezConfirmed
Model pickPHI moneyline53%Model 20260810_auto
STLHome starterAndre PallanteConfirmed
PHI53%ML -162
Base model probability53%Moneyline only
STL47%ML +138

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#1
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-timeN/A

Sanchez (2.65 ERA, 10.46 K/9 over 149.7 IP) is the clear comparison over Pallante (3.63 ERA, 6.53 K/9), and PHI's 5.5 RPG vs STL's 4.1 supports the market's -163. PHI's listed .570 OPS looks like a data artifact, so I weight the run-scoring rate instead. Model's 9.27 total sits well above the 8.0 line; with Sanchez's strikeout profile at a near-neutral Busch (PF 1.03), I lean under.

Projection Context

Projected margin0.5
Projected total8.9
Market total7.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Cristopher SánchezPHI starter / away
Projected K5.6Actual 7 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -140 fanduel / U +125 betmgm5 books at this line
Model over 5.548%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.591%over
O 3.580%over
O 4.565%over
O 5.548%over
O 6.533%over
O 7.521%under
O 8.513%under
O 9.57%under
O 10.54%under
O 11.52%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.

Andre PallanteSTL starter / home
Projected K4.6Actual 2 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -103 betrivers / U -115 bovada7 books at this line
Model over 3.566%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%over
O 2.583%under
O 3.566%under
O 4.548%under
O 5.532%under
O 6.519%under
O 7.510%under
O 8.55%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus-162 / +138PHI / STL moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-127)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -115 / U -105
31 books30 ML23 run line22 total