MLB / mlb / live
COL 8 / STL 6COLColorado Rockies44%
STLSt. Louis Cardinals56%
at Busch Stadium
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedCOLAway starterKyle FreelandConfirmed
Model pickSTL moneyline56%Model 20260803_auto
STLHome starterMatthew LiberatoreConfirmed
COL44%ML +138
Base model probability56%Moneyline only
STL56%ML -159
Projection Context
Projected margin0.3
Projected total9.0
Market total8.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Lines
Kyle FreelandCOL starter / away
Projected K4.3Actual 3 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -105 betmgm / U -106 fanduel7 books at this line
Model over 3.562%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.592%over
O 2.579%over
O 3.562%under
O 4.543%under
O 5.527%under
O 6.515%under
O 7.58%under
O 8.54%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
Matthew LiberatoreSTL starter / home
Projected K4.8Actual 3 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +122 fanduel / U -141 draftkings5 books at this line
Model over 5.536%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%over
O 2.585%over
O 3.570%under
O 4.552%under
O 5.536%under
O 6.522%under
O 7.513%under
O 8.57%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.51%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+138 / -159COL / STL moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+133)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -112 / U -108
32 books31 ML23 run line22 total