sharps.ggEvery pick graded
Back to board

MLB / mlb / live

CHC 4 / STL 2
CHCChicago Cubs51%
STLSt. Louis Cardinals49%

at Busch Stadium

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
CHCAway starterJavier AssadConfirmed
Model pickCHC moneyline51%Model 20260727_auto
STLHome starterAndre PallanteConfirmed
CHC51%ML -104
Base model probability51%Moneyline only
STL49%ML -115

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#3
Total lean · analyst-timeOver
Model-market gap · analyst-time3.0 pts

Model has CHC at 51.3%, market at 48.3% — essentially a coin flip. Cubs' 6.8 RPG vs STL's 3.0 RPG is a massive offensive comparison. Model's 9.32 total is 0.82 runs above market 8.5; SHAP shows away offense driving both predictions. Pallante's 3.77 ERA over 112 IP is solid but CHC bats are the real story here.

Projection Context

Projected margin0.4
Projected total8.9
Market total8.0
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Javier AssadCHC starter / away
Projected K2.8Actual 6 K / Over 2.5
Best price at 2.52.5O -115 bovada / U -101 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 2.553%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.576%over
O 2.553%over
O 3.531%over
O 4.516%over
O 5.57%over
O 6.53%under
O 7.51%under
O 8.50%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

Andre PallanteSTL starter / home
Projected K4.4Actual 3 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +138 fanduel / U -164 draftkings5 books at this line
Model over 4.544%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.593%over
O 2.580%over
O 3.563%under
O 4.544%under
O 5.528%under
O 6.516%under
O 7.59%under
O 8.54%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus-104 / -115CHC / STL moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-176)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -115 / U -105
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total