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CIN 0 / STL 7
CINCincinnati Reds54%
STLSt. Louis Cardinals46%

at Busch Stadium

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
CINAway starterHunter GreeneConfirmed
Model pickCIN moneyline54%Model 20260720_auto
STLHome starterAndre PallanteConfirmed
CIN54%ML -109
Base model probability54%Moneyline only
STL46%ML -110

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#3
Total lean · analyst-timeOver
Model-market gap · analyst-time5.3 pts

Model picks CIN at 54.4% vs market 49.1%, a modest 5.3pp comparison. Greene's 14.33 K/9 in only 16.3 IP is elite strikeout stuff but tiny sample with 6.06 ERA suggests control issues. Pallante's 105 IP at 4.02 ERA is reliable volume. CIN offense at 4.3 RPG vs STL 3.4 RPG supports away side lean. Total 8.81 vs market 8.5 is tight; slight park bump (1.034 PF) and CIN's offense tilt over.

Projection Context

Projected margin0.5
Projected total8.8
Market total8.0
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Hunter GreeneCIN starter / away
Projected K5.6Actual 3 K / Under 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O +103 betonlineag / U -113 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 6.533%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.591%over
O 3.579%under
O 4.564%under
O 5.548%under
O 6.533%under
O 7.521%under
O 8.512%under
O 9.57%under
O 10.53%under
O 11.52%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

Andre PallanteSTL starter / home
Projected K4.6Actual 8 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +118 fanduel / U -144 draftkings5 books at this line
Model over 4.548%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%over
O 2.582%over
O 3.566%over
O 4.548%over
O 5.531%over
O 6.519%over
O 7.510%over
O 8.55%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 8 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus-109 / -110CIN / STL moneyline
Run line context1.0 (-156)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -107 / U -114
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total