MLB / mlb / live
MIA 5 / STL 1MIAMiami Marlins48%
STLSt. Louis Cardinals52%
at Busch Stadium
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedMIAAway starterRyan GustoConfirmed
Model pickSTL moneyline52%Model 20260622_auto
STLHome starterAndre PallanteConfirmed
MIA48%ML +118
Base model probability52%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability56%Selected moneyline pick
STL52%ML -140
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
Projection Context
Projected margin0.2
Projected total8.9
Market total8.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Lines
Ryan GustoMIA starter / away
Projected K3.3Actual 4 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -105 betmgm / U -108 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 3.542%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.584%over
O 2.564%over
O 3.542%over
O 4.525%under
O 5.513%under
O 6.56%under
O 7.52%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
Andre PallanteSTL starter / home
Projected K4.6Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +100 betonlineag / U -120 bovada6 books at this line
Model over 4.549%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%over
O 2.583%over
O 3.567%over
O 4.549%under
O 5.532%under
O 6.519%under
O 7.510%under
O 8.55%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+118 / -140MIA / STL moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+145)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -115 / U -103
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total