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ARI 2 / STL 3
ARIArizona Diamondbacks53%
STLSt. Louis Cardinals47%

at Busch Stadium

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
ARIAway starterMerrill KellyConfirmed
Model pickARI moneyline53%Model 20260622_auto
STLHome starterAndre PallanteConfirmed
ARI53%ML +128
Base model probability53%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability42%Selected moneyline pick
STL47%ML -152

Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#1
Total leanOver
Model-market gap11.3 pts

Model picks ARI at 53.4% but market has STL at 56.8% — a 15-point gap flags structural miss. ARI's offense is historically weak (2.3 RPG, .564 OPS) while Kelly's 5.81 ERA in 70 IP is a real weakness. STL's 3.8 RPG and Pallante's 3.76 ERA provide comparison. Model total 9.07 vs market 8.5 in slight pitcher's park; lean over given offensive SHAP features dominating total prediction.

Large model-market gapoffense defense mismatch

Projection Context

Projected margin0.6
Projected total9.1
Market total8.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Merrill KellyARI starter / away
Projected K3.6Actual 2 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -103 betrivers / U -118 fanduel5 books at this line
Model over 3.547%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.586%over
O 2.568%under
O 3.547%under
O 4.529%under
O 5.516%under
O 6.58%under
O 7.53%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

Andre PallanteSTL starter / home
Projected K4.5Actual 2 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -132 fanduel / U +110 betonlineag7 books at this line
Model over 3.565%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.593%over
O 2.582%under
O 3.565%under
O 4.547%under
O 5.531%under
O 6.518%under
O 7.510%under
O 8.55%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context

Market consensus+128 / -152ARI / STL moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+135)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -113 / U -107
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total