MLB / mlb / live
SDP 6 / STL 1SDPSan Diego Padres45%
STLSt. Louis Cardinals55%
at Busch Stadium
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedSDPAway starterBradgley RodriguezConfirmed
Model pickSTL moneyline55%Model 20260616_auto
STLHome starterKyle LeahyConfirmed
SDP45%ML +110
Base model probability55%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability54%Selected moneyline pick
STL55%ML -128
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
Projection Context
Projected margin0.4
Projected total9.0
Market total10.5
Total leanUnder
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Bradgley RodriguezSDP starter / away
Projected K1.6Actual 1 K
Market lineN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.547%under
O 2.522%under
O 3.58%under
O 4.53%under
O 5.51%under
O 6.50%under
O 7.50%under
O 8.50%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.
Kyle LeahySTL starter / home
Projected K4.3Actual 7 K
Market lineN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.592%over
O 2.580%over
O 3.562%over
O 4.543%over
O 5.527%over
O 6.516%over
O 7.58%under
O 8.54%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+110 / -128SDP / STL moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+150)Home spread price shown for context
Total context10.5O -111 / U -108
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total