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SDP 6 / STL 1
SDPSan Diego Padres45%
STLSt. Louis Cardinals55%

at Busch Stadium

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
SDPAway starterBradgley RodriguezConfirmed
Model pickSTL moneyline55%Model 20260616_auto
STLHome starterKyle LeahyConfirmed
SDP45%ML +110
Base model probability55%Moneyline only
STL55%ML -128

Projection Context

Projected margin0.4
Projected total9.0
Market total10.5
Total leanUnder

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Bradgley RodriguezSDP starter / away
Projected K1.6Actual 1 K
Market line · pregameN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.547%under
O 2.522%under
O 3.58%under
O 4.53%under
O 5.51%under
O 6.50%under
O 7.50%under
O 8.50%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.

Kyle LeahySTL starter / home
Projected K4.3Actual 7 K
Market line · pregameN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.592%over
O 2.580%over
O 3.562%over
O 4.543%over
O 5.527%over
O 6.516%over
O 7.58%under
O 8.54%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus+110 / -128SDP / STL moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+150)Home spread price shown for context
Total context10.5O -111 / U -108
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total