MLB / mlb / live
SDP 2 / STL 3SDPSan Diego Padres49%
STLSt. Louis Cardinals51%
at Busch Stadium
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedSDPAway starterMichael KingConfirmed
Model pickSTL moneyline51%Model 20260616_auto
STLHome starterAndre PallanteConfirmed
SDP49%ML +100
Base model probability51%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability52%Selected moneyline pick
STL51%ML -118
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
Projection Context
Projected margin0.1
Projected total8.9
Market total8.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Lines
Michael KingSDP starter / away
Projected K4.6Actual 1 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +105 bovada / U -132 draftkings5 books at this line
Model over 4.548%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%under
O 2.583%under
O 3.566%under
O 4.548%under
O 5.532%under
O 6.519%under
O 7.510%under
O 8.55%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.
Andre PallanteSTL starter / home
Projected K4.9Actual 6 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -137 draftkings / U +114 fanduel6 books at this line
Model over 3.572%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%over
O 2.586%over
O 3.572%over
O 4.554%over
O 5.538%over
O 6.524%under
O 7.514%under
O 8.57%under
O 9.54%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+100 / -118SDP / STL moneyline
Run line context-1.3 (+143)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -112 / U -109
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total