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SDP 0 / STL 3
SDPSan Diego Padres40%
STLSt. Louis Cardinals60%

at Busch Stadium

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
SDPAway starterWandy PeraltaConfirmed
Model pickSTL moneyline60%Model 20260414_1
STLHome starterDustin MayConfirmed
SDP40%ML +132
Base model probability60%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability59%Selected moneyline pick
STL60%ML -157

Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#5
Total leanNo total lean
Model-market gap1.6 pts

Away pitcher is TBD with fallback stats, making both side and total unreliable. STL's 6.7 RPG vs SDP's 4.1 RPG is a wide offensive gap, but model only has 60% confidence vs market's 58%. Without knowing the actual SDP starter, cannot assess the matchup quality or validate the 8.77 total prediction.

pitcher data fallback

Projection Context

Projected margin1.0
Projected total8.9
Market total8.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Wandy PeraltaSDP starter / away
Projected K1.9Actual 1 K
Market lineN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.555%under
O 2.529%under
O 3.512%under
O 4.54%under
O 5.51%under
O 6.50%under
O 7.50%under
O 8.50%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.

Dustin MaySTL starter / home
Projected K5.3Actual 9 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +126 fanduel / U -145 draftkings5 books at this line
Model over 5.544%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%over
O 2.589%over
O 3.576%over
O 4.560%over
O 5.544%over
O 6.529%over
O 7.518%over
O 8.510%over
O 9.55%under
O 10.53%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 9 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context

Market consensus+132 / -157SDP / STL moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+126)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -110 / U -110
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total