MLB / mlb / live
TEX 7 / STL 4TEXTexas Rangers40%
STLSt. Louis Cardinals60%
at Busch Stadium
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedTEXAway starterNathan Eovaldi
Model pickSTL moneyline60%Model 20260414_1
STLHome starterDustin May
TEX40%ML -110
Base model probability60%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability50%Selected moneyline pick
STL60%ML -109
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#3
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap10.3 pts
Model has STL at 60% while market is coin flip. Both starters have ERAs north of 9.00 in tiny samples (4-4.7 IP), making these fallback-quality starts despite 'full' labels. Model's 9.0 total vs market 7.0 is a 2-run gap—likely overweighting STL's short-window offense. Fade the model, lean TEX and under.
Large model-market gaptotal far from market
Projection Context
Projected margin0.8
Projected total9.0
Market total7.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus-110 / -109TEX / STL moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-180)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.0O -108 / U -111
32 books31 ML23 run line22 total