MLB / mlb / live
CHC 6 / STL 1CHCChicago Cubs49%
STLSt. Louis Cardinals51%
at Busch Stadium
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedCHCAway starterBen Brown
Model pickSTL moneyline51%Model 20260414_1
STLHome starterKyle Leahy
CHC49%ML -133
Base model probability51%Moneyline only
STL51%ML +112
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#5
Total lean · analyst-timeOver
Model-market gap · analyst-time7.9 pts
Model sees a coin flip (51% STL), market leans CHC at 57%. Kyle Leahy has zero recorded IP/ERA/K9 stats despite 10 starts—data quality issue suggests model is working blind on home side. CHC's Ben Brown has limited IP (3.1) but real stats. Market knows something model doesn't. Total: model 9.1 vs market 8.0, park factor neutral at 1.03.
Projection Context
Projected margin0.2
Projected total9.1
Market total8.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus-133 / +112CHC / STL moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-154)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -110 / U -112
32 books31 ML24 run line23 total