MLB / mlb / live
CHC 6 / STL 1CHCChicago Cubs49%
STLSt. Louis Cardinals51%
at Busch Stadium
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedCHCAway starterBen Brown
Model pickSTL moneyline51%Model 20260414_1
STLHome starterKyle Leahy
CHC49%ML -133
Base model probability51%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability45%Selected moneyline pick
STL51%ML +112
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#5
Total leanOver
Model-market gap5.8 pts
Model sees a coin flip (51% STL), market leans CHC at 57%. Kyle Leahy has zero recorded IP/ERA/K9 stats despite 10 starts—data quality issue suggests model is working blind on home side. CHC's Ben Brown has limited IP (3.1) but real stats. Market knows something model doesn't. Total: model 9.1 vs market 8.0, park factor neutral at 1.03.
Projection Context
Projected margin0.2
Projected total9.1
Market total8.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus-133 / +112CHC / STL moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-154)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -110 / U -112
32 books31 ML24 run line23 total