MLB / mlb / live
KCR 2 / STL 4KCRKansas City Royals52%
STLSt. Louis Cardinals48%
at Busch Stadium
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedKCRAway starterNoah Cameron
Model pickKCR moneyline52%Model 20260414_1
STLHome starterKyle Leahy
KCR52%ML +100
Base model probability52%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability48%Selected moneyline pick
STL48%ML -119
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#7
Total leanNo total lean
Model-market gap4.3 pts
Model sees KCR at 52.2%, market implies STL 52.0% — a coin flip. Both pitchers lack ERA/K9/WHIP despite 9-10 starts, suggesting data quality issues beneath 'full' label. No structural flags fired. Park factor 1.034 is neutral. Market total 9.0 vs model 9.28 is tight. No comparison identifiable.
Projection Context
Projected margin0.3
Projected total9.3
Market total9.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+100 / -119KCR / STL moneyline
Run line context-0.3 (-2)Home spread price shown for context
Total context9.0O -110 / U -110
32 books31 ML24 run line23 total