MLB / mlb / live
MIL 6 / STL 2MILMilwaukee Brewers46%
STLSt. Louis Cardinals54%
at Busch Stadium
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedMILAway starterBrandon Sproat
Model pickSTL moneyline54%Model 20260414_1
STLHome starterAndre Pallante
MIL46%ML -106
Base model probability54%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability50%Selected moneyline pick
STL54%ML -110
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#6
Total leanOver
Model-market gap3.1 pts
Model at 53.6% aligns with market's 50.7% on STL. Sproat's 21.00 ERA in 3 IP is tiny sample noise but MIL offense leads at .972 OPS. Model total 9.19 vs market 8.0 suggests over, though 1.2-run gap warrants caution.
Projection Context
Projected margin0.0
Projected total9.2
Market total8.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus-106 / -110MIL / STL moneyline
Run line context1.0 (-143)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -115 / U -105
32 books30 ML25 run line22 total