MLB / mlb / live
MIL 3 / STL 6MILMilwaukee Brewers42%
STLSt. Louis Cardinals58%
at Busch Stadium
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedMILAway starterChad Patrick
Model pickSTL moneyline58%Model 20260414_1
STLHome starterKyle Leahy
MIL42%ML -118
Base model probability58%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability48%Selected moneyline pick
STL58%ML +100
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#6
Total leanOver
Model-market gap9.5 pts
Model has STL 57.5% vs market 48%. Chad Patrick shows 2.08 ERA in just 4.1 IP—extreme small sample noise. Kyle Leahy's missing season stats are a major data hole. Market_disagreement_large flag fires; Pinnacle likely knows something structural about Leahy that model doesn't. Pass on side, lean over 8.5 given 1.034 park factor and solid team offense (.812/.972 OPS).
Large model-market gap
Projection Context
Projected margin0.4
Projected total9.2
Market total8.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus-118 / +100MIL / STL moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-170)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -115 / U -104
32 books30 ML25 run line22 total