MLB / mlb / live
LAD 4 / STL 1LADLos Angeles Dodgers42%
STLSt. Louis Cardinals58%
at Busch Stadium
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedLADAway starterJustin Wrobleski
Model pickSTL moneyline58%Model 20260414_1
STLHome starterDustin May
LAD42%ML -147
Base model probability58%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability43%Selected moneyline pick
STL58%ML +124
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#9
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap14.7 pts
Wrobleski has null stats across all fields—no ERA, no IP, no K/9. May's 13.5 ERA in 4.0 IP is catastrophically small sample. Model likes STL at 57.5% vs market's 42.6%, a 15-point gap flagged as large disagreement. With one pitcher's data completely missing and the other barely pitched, I can't justify overruling the market. Lean under 9.5 given data chaos.
Large model-market gap
Projection Context
Projected margin0.5
Projected total9.0
Market total9.5
Total leanUnder
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus-147 / +124LAD / STL moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-130)Home spread price shown for context
Total context9.5O -105 / U -115
31 books29 ML24 run line21 total