MLB / mlb / live
LAD 2 / STL 3LADLos Angeles Dodgers45%
STLSt. Louis Cardinals55%
at Busch Stadium
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedLADAway starterRoki Sasaki
Model pickSTL moneyline55%Model 20260414_1
STLHome starterMichael McGreevy
LAD45%ML -136
Base model probability55%Moneyline only
STL55%ML +115
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#10
Total lean · analyst-timeNo total lean
Model-market gap · analyst-time9.9 pts
Sasaki's stats are completely missing (null ERA/IP/K9/WHIP). McGreevy's 6.0 IP over 10 starts averages 0.6 IP per start—clearly incomplete data. Model shows 54.7% STL vs market's 44.8%, triggering large disagreement flag, but with both pitcher profiles this broken, I can't justify either side. This is a data quality issue, not an analyzable matchup.
Large model-market gap
Projection Context
Projected margin0.3
Projected total9.0
Market total8.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus-136 / +115LAD / STL moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-142)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -120 / U +100
31 books29 ML24 run line21 total