MLB / mlb / live
SEA 11 / STL 9SEASeattle Mariners42%
STLSt. Louis Cardinals58%
at Busch Stadium
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedSEAAway starterBryan Woo
Model pickSTL moneyline58%Model 20260414_1
STLHome starterMatthew Liberatore
SEA42%ML -149
Base model probability58%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability43%Selected moneyline pick
STL58%ML +123
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#2
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap15.3 pts
Model has STL 58% but market has SEA -142 (59%). Bryan Woo's elite peripherals (13.5 K/9, 0.83 WHIP in 6 IP) plus Liberatore's weak Ks (3.6 K/9, 1.8 WHIP) suggest SEA comparison. Model's 9.32 total vs market 7.5 is a 1.8-run gap—ace matchup flag fired but Liberatore isn't an ace. Lean SEA, under 7.5.
Large model-market gaptotal far from marketace matchup
Projection Context
Projected margin0.7
Projected total9.3
Market total7.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus-149 / +123SEA / STL moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-135)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -110 / U -110
32 books30 ML25 run line22 total