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LAA 4 / SEA 8
LAALos Angeles Angels39%
SEASeattle Mariners61%

at T-Mobile Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
LAAAway starterRyan JohnsonConfirmed
Model pickSEA moneyline61%Model 20260921_auto
SEAHome starterKade AndersonProbable
LAA39%ML +134
Base model probability61%Moneyline only
SEA61%ML -158

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#3
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time2.1 pts

Model (61.2%) and market (63.3%) align on Seattle, so no real comparison on the side but the pick is defensible. Both offenses are scoring under 4 RPG and T-Mobile's 0.855 park factor is a heavy suppressor; the model's 7.92 total sits nearly a run above the 7.0 market line, which reads as an under-weighted park adjustment. Taking the under.

extreme park

Projection Context

Projected margin1.0
Projected total8.2
Market total7.0
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Ryan JohnsonLAA starter / away
Projected K4.9Actual 3 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +115 betonlineag / U -126 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 4.554%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%over
O 2.586%over
O 3.571%under
O 4.554%under
O 5.537%under
O 6.523%under
O 7.513%under
O 8.57%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

Kade AndersonSEA starter / home
Projected K5.4Actual 4 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -141 draftkings / U +120 betonlineag6 books at this line
Model over 5.546%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.590%over
O 3.578%over
O 4.562%under
O 5.546%under
O 6.531%under
O 7.519%under
O 8.511%under
O 9.56%under
O 10.53%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus+134 / -158LAA / SEA moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+135)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.0O -114 / U -106
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total