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scheduled
LAALos Angeles Angels39%
SEASeattle Mariners61%

at T-Mobile Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
LAAAway starterReid DetmersProbable
Model pickSEA moneyline61%Model 20260921_auto
SEAHome starterBryce MillerProbable
LAA39%ML +102
Base model probability61%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability52%Selected moneyline pick
SEA61%ML -120

Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#5
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time8.8 pts

Model's 61.2% on SEA is 8+ points above the market's 52.9% without a clear justification; Detmers (3.47 ERA, 10.26 K/9, 1.05 WHIP) is the better starter, so I'll only lean home at near pick-em pricing. The 8.18-run total is the bigger miss: T-Mobile at 0.855 park factor with both offenses under 4.0 RPG argues firmly under 6.5.

Large model-market gaptotal far from marketextreme park

Projection Context

Projected margin0.9
Projected total8.2
Market total6.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Updated
Market
Reid DetmersLAA starter / away
Projected K6.7
Market line · pregameN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.599%
O 2.595%
O 3.589%
O 4.578%
O 5.564%
O 6.550%
O 7.536%
O 8.524%
O 9.515%
O 10.59%
O 11.55%

Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.

Bryce MillerSEA starter / home
Projected K5.4
Market line · pregameN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%
O 2.589%
O 3.577%
O 4.561%
O 5.544%
O 6.530%
O 7.518%
O 8.510%
O 9.55%
O 10.53%
O 11.51%

Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Market odds · pregame

Market consensus+102 / -120LAA / SEA moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+175)Home spread price shown for context
Total context6.5O -120 / U +100
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total