MLB / mlb / live
HOU 5 / SEA 6HOUHouston Astros46%
SEASeattle Mariners54%
at T-Mobile Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedHOUAway starterEthan PeckoProbable
Model pickSEA moneyline54%Model 20260921_auto
SEAHome starterGeorge KirbyConfirmed
HOU46%ML +108
Base model probability54%Moneyline only
SEA54%ML -130
Projection Context
Projected margin0.2
Projected total8.5
Market total7.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Lines
Ethan PeckoHOU starter / away
Projected K3.6Actual 2 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -145 draftkings / U +130 bovada5 books at this line
Model over 3.549%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.587%over
O 2.570%under
O 3.549%under
O 4.530%under
O 5.517%under
O 6.58%under
O 7.54%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.
George KirbySEA starter / home
Projected K4.8Actual 5 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -132 fanduel / U +115 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 4.552%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%over
O 2.585%over
O 3.570%over
O 4.552%over
O 5.535%under
O 6.522%under
O 7.512%under
O 8.56%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.51%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+108 / -130HOU / SEA moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+155)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -115 / U -105
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total