sharps.ggEvery pick graded
Back to board

MLB / mlb / live

scheduled
LAALos Angeles Angels41%
SEASeattle Mariners59%

at T-Mobile Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
LAAAway starterGrayson RodriguezProbable
Model pickSEA moneyline59%Model 20260921_auto
SEAHome starterBryan WooProbable
LAA41%ML +185
Base model probability59%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability66%Selected moneyline pick
SEA59%ML -222

Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#3
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time7.1 pts

Market (65.7%) is more bullish on Seattle than the model (59.2%), and the pitching comparison supports the market: Woo at 3.92 ERA/1.08 WHIP over 167.7 IP versus Rodriguez at 5.96 ERA/1.54 WHIP. T-Mobile's 0.855 park factor argues the model's 8.13-run total is too high against a 7.0 line; under is the cleaner side.

extreme park

Projection Context

Projected margin0.6
Projected total8.1
Market total7.0
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Updated
Market
Lines
Grayson RodriguezLAA starter / away
Projected K5.3
Best price at 4.54.5O -135 betmgm / U +114 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 4.560%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%
O 2.589%
O 3.576%
O 4.560%
O 5.544%
O 6.529%
O 7.518%
O 8.510%
O 9.55%
O 10.53%
O 11.51%

Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.

Bryan WooSEA starter / home
Projected K6.3
Best price at 6.56.5O -140 fanduel / U +115 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 6.543%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.598%
O 2.594%
O 3.586%
O 4.573%
O 5.559%
O 6.543%
O 7.530%
O 8.519%
O 9.511%
O 10.56%
O 11.53%

Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Market odds · pregame

Market consensus+185 / -222LAA / SEA moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+100)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.0O -112 / U -110
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total