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TEX 3 / SEA 4
TEXTexas Rangers50%
SEASeattle Mariners50%

at T-Mobile Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
TEXAway starterJacob deGromConfirmed
Model pickSEA moneyline50%Model 20260907_auto
SEAHome starterLogan GilbertConfirmed
TEX50%ML 0
Base model probability50%Moneyline only
SEA50%ML -120

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#1
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time3.8 pts

Model's 8.24-run total is nearly two runs above the 6.5 market line despite T-Mobile Park at 0.855 and two strikeout starters (Gilbert 9.6 K/9, 1.07 WHIP; deGrom 10.93 K/9, 1.12 WHIP) — that gap looks like a structural miss, so under. On the side, market's 53.9% on SEA is more defensible than the model's coin-flip; TEX's 6.0 RPG against a .698 OPS is internally inconsistent enough to discount.

total far from marketextreme parkoffense defense mismatch

Projection Context

Projected margin0.2
Projected total8.5
Market total7.0
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Jacob deGromTEX starter / away
Projected K6.0Actual 12 K / Over 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O -122 fanduel / U +108 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 6.540%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.598%over
O 2.593%over
O 3.584%over
O 4.571%over
O 5.555%over
O 6.540%over
O 7.527%over
O 8.517%over
O 9.510%over
O 10.55%over
O 11.53%over

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 12 strikeouts.

Logan GilbertSEA starter / home
Projected K6.6Actual 11 K / Over 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O -135 betmgm / U +128 betonlineag6 books at this line
Model over 6.549%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.599%over
O 2.595%over
O 3.588%over
O 4.577%over
O 5.564%over
O 6.549%over
O 7.535%over
O 8.523%over
O 9.514%over
O 10.58%over
O 11.55%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 11 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus0 / -120TEX / SEA moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+170)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.0O -105 / U -115
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total