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OAK 7 / SEA 6
OAKOakland Athletics37%
SEASeattle Mariners63%

at T-Mobile Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
OAKAway starterKade MorrisConfirmed
Model pickSEA moneyline63%Model 20260831_auto
SEAHome starterLogan GilbertConfirmed
OAK37%ML +194
Base model probability63%Moneyline only
SEA63%ML -235

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#3
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time3.6 pts

Market (66.2%) is slightly higher on SEA than the model (62.5%); Gilbert's 3.42 ERA and 1.04 WHIP over 160.1 IP against Morris (9.82 ERA, 2.11 WHIP) supports the home side. The model's 9.19-run total ignores T-Mobile's 0.855 park factor and sits 2.2 runs above the 7.0 line — a structural miss. Under.

total far from marketextreme park

Projection Context

Projected margin1.0
Projected total9.2
Market total7.0
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Kade MorrisOAK starter / away
Projected K4.1Actual 0 K / Under 2.5
Best price at 2.52.5O +115 betmgm / U -115 draftkings3 books at this line
Model over 2.576%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.591%under
O 2.576%under
O 3.558%under
O 4.539%under
O 5.523%under
O 6.513%under
O 7.56%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 0 strikeouts.

Logan GilbertSEA starter / home
Projected K6.3Actual 10 K / Over 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O -115 betmgm / U +109 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 6.545%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.598%over
O 2.594%over
O 3.586%over
O 4.574%over
O 5.560%over
O 6.545%over
O 7.531%over
O 8.520%over
O 9.512%over
O 10.57%under
O 11.54%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 10 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus+194 / -235OAK / SEA moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+100)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.0O -118 / U -102
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total