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PHI 1 / SEA 4
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies46%
SEASeattle Mariners54%

at T-Mobile Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
PHIAway starterAaron NolaConfirmed
Model pickSEA moneyline54%Model 20260824_auto
SEAHome starterGeorge KirbyConfirmed
PHI46%ML -101
Base model probability54%Moneyline only
SEA54%ML -116

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#9
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time3.6 pts

Market is essentially a pick'em (-105/-103) and the model's 53.8% adds nothing. Kirby's 4.18 ERA and 1.36 WHIP comparison Nola's 5.12/1.42, and T-Mobile's 0.855 park factor favors the home arm, so a slight SEA lean. The model's 9.10 total is 1.6 runs above the 7.5 line in a strong pitcher park; under is the cleaner side. PHI's .570 OPS against 6.6 RPG looks inconsistent, so I discount the mismatch flag.

total far from marketextreme parkoffense defense mismatch

Projection Context

Projected margin0.0
Projected total9.1
Market total8.0
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Aaron NolaPHI starter / away
Projected K6.4Actual 7 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -125 bovada / U +101 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 5.560%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.598%over
O 2.594%over
O 3.587%over
O 4.575%over
O 5.560%over
O 6.545%over
O 7.531%under
O 8.520%under
O 9.512%under
O 10.57%under
O 11.54%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.

George KirbySEA starter / home
Projected K5.2Actual 9 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -118 draftkings / U -103 betrivers6 books at this line
Model over 4.558%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%over
O 2.588%over
O 3.574%over
O 4.558%over
O 5.541%over
O 6.527%over
O 7.516%over
O 8.59%over
O 9.54%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 9 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus-101 / -116PHI / SEA moneyline
Run line context1.0 (-162)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -110 / U -110
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total