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CHC 19 / SEA 2
CHCChicago Cubs48%
SEASeattle Mariners52%

at T-Mobile Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
CHCAway starterShota ImanagaConfirmed
Model pickSEA moneyline52%Model 20260817_auto
SEAHome starterBryce MillerConfirmed
CHC48%ML -126
Base model probability52%Moneyline only
SEA52%ML +108

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#6
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time1.4 pts

Model (51.6%) and market (50.2%) both call this a coin flip; SEA's .793 OPS at home versus CHC's .694 is the only real separator, so lean only. The model's 9.18-run total is 1.68 above the 7.5 line despite T-Mobile's 0.855 park factor and two starters with sub-3.80 ERAs and sub-1.10 WHIPs. That's a structural park miss; take the under.

total far from marketextreme park

Projection Context

Projected margin0.2
Projected total9.2
Market total7.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Shota ImanagaCHC starter / away
Projected K5.8Actual 4 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -106 draftkings / U -114 betrivers6 books at this line
Model over 5.551%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.592%over
O 3.581%over
O 4.567%under
O 5.551%under
O 6.536%under
O 7.523%under
O 8.514%under
O 9.58%under
O 10.54%under
O 11.52%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Bryce MillerSEA starter / home
Projected K5.2Actual 5 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +130 bovada / U -150 fanatics6 books at this line
Model over 5.542%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%over
O 2.588%over
O 3.575%over
O 4.558%over
O 5.542%under
O 6.527%under
O 7.516%under
O 8.59%under
O 9.55%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus-126 / +108CHC / SEA moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-160)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -110 / U -110
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total