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DET 11 / SEA 0
DETDetroit Tigers58%
SEASeattle Mariners42%

at T-Mobile Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
DETAway starterFramber ValdezConfirmed
Model pickDET moneyline58%Model 20260803_auto
SEAHome starterBryce MillerConfirmed
DET58%ML +102
Base model probability58%Moneyline only
SEA42%ML -120

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#6
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time11.3 pts

Model takes DET at 57.6% against a market implying 53.8% home; I side with Seattle. Bryce Miller's 2.80 ERA and 0.92 WHIP over 74 IP outclass Valdez's 4.41 ERA and 1.39 WHIP. Model total of 9.22 vs a 7.5 line ignores T-Mobile's 0.855 park factor, so under. Note the team offense lines (DET 7.6 RPG on .582 OPS) look internally inconsistent, which undercuts the model's inputs.

Large model-market gaptotal far from marketextreme park

Projection Context

Projected margin0.8
Projected total9.2
Market total7.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Framber ValdezDET starter / away
Projected K4.5Actual 5 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -150 bovada / U +128 fanduel6 books at this line
Model over 4.547%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.593%over
O 2.582%over
O 3.565%over
O 4.547%over
O 5.530%under
O 6.518%under
O 7.510%under
O 8.55%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

Bryce MillerSEA starter / home
Projected K5.8Actual 5 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +102 draftkings / U -120 fanduel7 books at this line
Model over 5.551%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.592%over
O 3.581%over
O 4.567%over
O 5.551%under
O 6.536%under
O 7.523%under
O 8.514%under
O 9.58%under
O 10.54%under
O 11.52%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus+102 / -120DET / SEA moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+163)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -115 / U -108
32 books31 ML23 run line22 total